I think it's too early to tell. I'm having a good year, but we probably all still feed from budgets that were assigned before the summer, so I think that the crunch will properly kick in the second quarter of 2009. There is plenty of doom-mongering in the press, and it is perfectly possible that this downturn will be sharp and painful but short.
But a downturn it will be, no question. No disrespect, but it's a bit naive to think that the graphic design industry will somehow not be affected by it. I'm not that old ;-) and wasn't really in business when the last recession struck in the early nineties, but I went through the isolated mini-recession of the dotcom era as an entrepreneur, and I tell you it wasn't fun. I also have plenty of colleagues who ran successful design houses in the late eighties and almost overnight had their businesses wiped out in '91.
I hear people say that 'the digital industry usually isn't affected by this sort of thing', and I'm thinking, there wasn't a digital industry to speak of when the last recession happened, so how do we know? We do know that things like advertising and PR are one of the first items to be cut on companies' expenditure lists (whether that's wise or not).
@Purplegurl
Thanks for pointing out that article. Broadcast design and production is definitely in turmoil because of many factors, some to do with the economic downturn, some with licence fee changes etc. Channel 4 have been announcing all sorts of cuts right across the board, and the BBC are going through more public value assessments and management re-structures than you can shake a stick at. They definitely have less money than they used to, whether for graphic design or anything else.
Sorry if I sound negative - I don't think we will be burning our furniture for heating next winter (as some tabloids do), but I'm probably urging people to be cautious and prepared instead of saying 'well, I work in digital and my order books are full'.
On a side note, I think that freelancing is a good option these days, because it's the staff costs that will be cut down, ie getting rid of in-house teams and then getting externals on competitive rates to do the work. A permanent job can be an illusion of security. I should know - I had to make 80% of my great staff redundant in a couple of months once...
Wolf.